Tuesday, December 9, 2008

The Transition

The last few weeks of political action have been fairly dull compared to the election. Though one thing that is slightly different is happening and is worth a note: Obama is getting his administration together FAST.

Neither Bush nor Clinton had all his cabinet secretaries picked out by inauguration day. Most new presidents tend to ease into the job. Only GHW Bush has ever had anything close to the pace of Obama's transition and that is because he was basically an incumbent.

Why is Obama moving so quickly? And why has not there been a single leftist named to a Cabinet position?

I believe that Obama has only one true goal: to succeed. I'm convinced that he is putting together a "team of rivals" for reasons more akin to Bill Clinton's politics than Lincoln's. He wants to have a presidency that the historians judge to be a good one. It means that he will be risk-adverse, non-ideological and calculating. This is not a criticism, there have been Presidents who have had the same philosophy of government that have been very successful, such as Franklin Roosevelt. When analysing his reasoning it's important to keep in mind that he is most often not doing things because he believes that they are "right." Rather he is doing things because he believes that they are "best."

To explain his haste with picking his cabinet we can divide his reasoning into two categories: Practical and Political.

Practical:

GW Bush is one of the lamest of lame ducks and there is a strong public demand for governance. Bush is not able to provide because he has been politically castrated. This is a problem beyond a normal end-of-term president because he has become so independently unpopular and things have gone poorly. As always the blame and credit sticks to the president. So while there are and will be defenders of the Bush legacy for now his efficacy is lower than a worm's belly.

This means that Obama is being looked to for leadership. He doesn't have power, and sure as heck Bush isn't going to give him the reigns one day earlier than he has to but Obama has the opportunity to set out all the ground work for a policy agenda before he actually takes office. This requires clear indications of who is in charge and who holds the power, thus he nominates his cabinet earlier than most presidents to cement his roll as leader and enable him to get off to a running start.

Political:

Obama has another challenge during this transition. Maintaining the political mandate to govern. The Republican Party is, for now, deep into its "loyal opposition" role. The Republicans were offended by Democrats that were so "disloyal" during the Bush administration and believe that they can teach them a lesson in proper decorum by refusing to use the same tactics. Republicans are wasting if they think that anyone is going to give them credit for being nice. Calling the president a "liar and a murder" on the floor of the congress is far more effective at alienating the public than saying he's got a "different opinion." Still, the Republicans are so far refusing to lower themselves to actually attacking Obama and it is something Obama should not take for granted. The Republicans are basically telling Obama that as long as he doesn't offend them, he will have a free(ish) hand. Obama has strengthened his position vis-a-vis the Republicans by acting quickly to set up his administration before they can decide they want to be harsher with their criticism.

Also, he's nominating a bunch of big named moderates. No Senate will even debate the confirmation of Hillary Clinton or Robert Gates or any of this other picks so far. They could pass his whole Cabinet by voice vote on a slate. He's trying not to pick fights over his advisers by tapping folks that have a political base beyond his own. This allows him to co-opt some of the possible opposition leadership and force everybody else to pay tribute to him for making picks that are beyond his assumed comfort area... thus singling that he is open to advice even from those with whom he disagrees. Leftists among his picks would make the whole process slower and riskier because they might encourage opposition from the right. At the moment Obama has nothing to fear from the left because he is still their golden child, so for expediency's sake they're being ignored so that he can get his administration running ASAP. The moderates will help Obama fill the leadership vacuum in Washington more quickly because there'll be no debate over their confirmation. Obama is counting on the fact that the President sets policy and governs not the secretary of State or Defense to defend himself from being out-flanked from the left in coming years... and he's probably safe in doing so.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Politics as usual. Nothing new, hopeful or changy so far. He's sounding like Bush, but without the chorus of critcism. That's the only thing good about our political future . . . a respite from the constant harping. He'll do O.K. or he'll screw up. It's 50:50. Don't trust the press to inform which is which. In the meantime, he dodged the birth certificate issue in the Supreme Court and we'll see if anyone actually holds his feet to the fire presently immolating Blagojevich.

Glad you're back!