Bouncing Politics!

There is a phenomenon that we usually see around the VP selections and conventions that has not been apparent this year. The bounce! If you'll recall Gore went from 4 points down to 10 points ahead based on a kiss in 2000. Though I don't think that a person is qualified to run the country based on tongue action, the introduction to the candidates and their running mates usually precipitate some gain in the polls.

This year, nothin'. Or, at least nearly nothing. Before the convention Gallop's tracking poll showed Obama and McCain in a statistical tie, and had done so for the better part of a month. The most recent polls might show a bounce because Obama has had a few days in a row in which he's leading by more than the 5 point error. Still, compared to previous bounces that's almost nothing, and Gallop's tracking poll is not something that is useful day to day, only in identifying trends. So I'm not ready to call it a bounce for Obama after 4 days of statistical significance.

Why has politics stopped bouncing? (or has it?) First, and foremost, Americans are far more partisan and well informed because of a vast expansion of information outlets such as blogspot.com. The ability to cheaply barrage the general public with a message means that grand gestures (such as kisses) do not have the same effect as before. More information makes people more skeptical and leads them to fall back on their core beliefs. Ironically the net effect of more information has been to make people identify more with their parties!

When a voter has access to both sides it becomes a matter of trust... and who do you trust the line given to you by the D's or the R's (probably whom ever you're registered for)? It's too easy to assume that the other side is spinning and discount whatever they say by identifying them as the "other team." This dissemination of new information has made people more partisan. Who's the least willing person you know to engage in blind partisanship? Is it your hair dresser who doesn't read the paper? Or is it your college professor who consumes vast quantities of public information? It is the availability of opinion that empowers partisans to believe that they are right because they have SO MUCH evidence to prove it! Quantity has substituted quality and resulted in incredibly well researched drivel appears.

So what does this have to do with bounces? I believe that the campaigns have lost control of the message. A kiss doesn't matter, and neither does a speech, a party, or a woman on the ticket. As the public polarizes the campaigns fight over a smaller and smaller number of 'swing' voters and there's simply less room to bounce.

What do you think?