Frankly, I had found the campaign becoming boring. It's mostly because Obama was cruising (smartly) and McCain was flubbing (not smartly). However, something came up today. The Rasmussen Poll which I trust to be fairly accurate shows Obama up only 3 points. Now, that's a daily tracking poll that is better used to discuss trends than realities.
Actually, the raw vote isn't nearly as interesting as some of the issue questions. For the first time ever, voters trust John McCain almost as much as they do Obama on the economy (Bill O'Reily is exclusively reporting that tomorrow's poll will actually show McCain ahead in this category). This is a potential problem for Obama. He is winning this election based on folks resenting Republican leadership of the nation in combination with bad results for their pocket books. This element is the most important feature to the Democrat's lead in generic polls. Voters still trust McCain by a wide margin in foreign policy and that advantage has widened over the last month.
However, Obama is slipping on what should be his best issue. Why? Because McCain finally stumbled onto the message that Hillary found at the end of her campaign: Obama doesn't have the experience to handle the economy. The recent discussion of "redistribution" has really hurt Obama. Upwards of 60% of people in an Zogby poll didn't agree with Obama's tax plan. It's a problem for him.
Obama's real problem is that he's not within the of the political norm in suggesting that those Americans making over 250k/year should send checks to those who make less. There has always been some level of redistribution of wealth in the country, and it's a very good thing that there is. However, in America it's usually sent money from the rich to the poor though education, health care and job training... programs that promote opportunities to succeed... not direct, no questions asked hand-outs such as Obama's tax credit ("tax cut for 95% of Americans" despite the fact that only about 50% of Americans pay federal income taxes).
I predict that McCain is still going to lose, it's too late. But, don't expect it to be 7 points and don't go to bed too early Tuesday. McCain's tax policy is becoming more popular and if he can link it to the economy going forward he can hurt Obama even if he doesn't have enough time to actually come back and win.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
6 comments:
Wow, I don't mean to be rude, but talk about cherry picking. Yes, Obama is only up by 3 in Rasmussen's tracker today, but yesterday and the day before he was up by five - is that two percent move a sign of more tightening or statistical noise? I think its a bit disingenuous to say so until we see what number comes out tomorrow. It just strikes me as pretty spotty analysis, reminiscent of all of Matt Drudge's "OMG RED TEXT!" poll headlines.
Recent polls, the pew poll in particular have been devastating towards McCain. Higher unfavorables, perception as running an unfair and negative campaign, people citing Palin as a liability, I could go on.
As far as Obama losing ground on the economy/taxes I could point to todays ABC/WAPO poll that has Obama leading 56 to 38 on "Better Understands American's Economic Problems", I've seen similar things in the Research 2000 tracker and the recent pew poll. He does even better in battleground states. Speaking of foreign policy I've seen two separate polls of CO where McCain only had a two point advantage on National Security. My point with all of this? Its pretty easy to cherry pick polls to prove a specific point. Its more important to look at things like larger trends, party ID, enthusiasm, favorable/unfavorables, and voter registration numbers. Here in Oregon in certain traditionally Republican counties there have been up to 27% less ballots returned than at this point in 2004. Now certainly Oregon isn't necessarily indicative of the national political climate, but if that kind of enthusiasm gap occurs in battleground states, specifically in FL then in fact many of us may be able to go to bed early next Tuesday, except for those of us hardcore political nerds who will be waiting on Senate races and ballot measure results (prop 8 anyone?).
That being said I haven't seen enough evidence to say that McCain's tax plan is "far more popular" as you claim. Maybe you can point me to some polls on that.
I also find your tax plan analysis to be a little disingenuous, at least in the verbiage anyway. There is a difference between having to physically sit down and write the IRS a check and not getting all of your payroll taxes back. Letting someone keep more of their payroll taxes is hardly a "no questions asked handout" (thats more like AFDC was IMO) and the image of someone making more than 250K physically writing a check to a poor person is ill served. I do agree though that Obama should mention that is tax credit is more like a benefit to 95% of working families - or something like that (heres a good article regarding his tax plan: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/750/ ). I think the better argument would be weither its wise to be subsidizing peoples payroll deductions, thats certainly a valid argument to have as I myself have some discomfort about that and I'm certainly to the left on the economic spectrum. Theres also something to be said for what Obama would do for people who file as independent contractors, although he has stated he would lower the self employment tax for lower income folks.
Anyway, good to have you back, I apologize for the rambling.
Don't apologize for the rambling! If you tolerate mine, I'll tolerate yours. It's great fun.
Here's a few polls that I believe use pretty good methodology when identifying likely voters:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102908_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081029
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/745224.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111619/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx
It's unfortunately impossible to get a guess at exactly what their methodology is... but I assume it's similar to the polling place that we used in the 2006 campaign for district 30. That is voters who vote at least 3/6 of the last fall elections weighted for projected turn out and a few little bumps here and there for guesses (such as folks who escape polling because they don't have a land line).
AND
I'm pretty sure when Gallop, Zogby, Rasmussen, Investor's Business Daily, each of which called the 2000 and 2004 races within 2 points,agree that the race is between 3 and 6 points it's a bit more reliable than a poll that says it's 14 points (nyt) or 15 points (pew). Neither of which were close in 2000 or 2004. I do trust Pew. I'm not sure how they managed to get a poll that has it at 15 points. Does anybody believe that Obama will win by 15%? With the sole exception of Washington's reelection that margin has never been accomplished in US politics. So this time, they've clearly got something pretty screwy going on.
This comes down to likely voter models. That is, the polls I rely on use a more traditional model of who votes based on who has voted in the past. ABC, Pew, the NYT polls and most of the others that favor Obama are using a very different sample based on the assumption that there will be millions of first-time voters. I'll believe that when I see it. They thought that millions of new folks were going to put McGovern over the top in '68... and more recently Howard Dean in '00. It just didn't happen, it's never happened, and I simply don't believe that these polls that are assuming that this year is different are correct.
Gallop has continued to do two polls actually, one that uses the old 3/6 4/6 5/6 and 6/6 model:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111619/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Edge-Over-McCain.aspx
And one that factors in a bunch of conventional wisdom based on the new registration.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx
As for my tax analysis being off... those folks who make more than 250k often DO have to write a check to the IRS every year. The business owners have to report their income and cut a check. There are some wage earners who make more than that, sure, basketball players... but the vast majority are either executives (who probably claim an exemption and do their own taxes anyway) or owners of big and small business who have to settle every year individually. Also, you're right, there is a difference between having to write a check and having the money deducted. In one case, you get to leave it in a CD and make 5% until april, in the other case you lose all the time value of the money to the government. Really it's putative to have the money deducted directly... there's just no other way to do it 'cause having a once a year tax bill would cause too many defaults, not to mention riots.
Something from the traditional Democratic party paper in Washington that is topical:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803675_pf.html
Sweet, lots of stuff to unpack here.
Yeah, obviously Obama isn't 14 points ahead, I merely ponted out the pew poll and ABC/WaPo because I think some of their internals are pretty interesting (yes I know theres some doubt about their internals when the top-lines are likely suspect, but I think you can identify some trends there).
I agree that Gallup and Rass are pretty reliable, I disagree about Zogby though, particularly this cycle, I may still be bitter about his prediction that Kerry would win over 300 Electoral Votes though.
I would also add that theres more to the democratic registration gains than new voters. There has been a great deal of independents switching party affiliation and even republicans. That being said youth turnout was pretty good in 2004 and African American turnout has been mammoth in certain states (I'm referring to GA specifically) - although the Latino vote is underperforming in Nevada, so it remains to be seen what effect minority turnout will have.
I'm definitely aware of different likely voter models, gallup's specifically. I definitely think their model thats most beneficial to Obama is a bit off. I do think though, that the enthusiasm gap IS real, and will have an effect. We're also seeing something different in terms of the sheer numbers of early voting.
Also I should have made myself clearer there, I am aware that people have to write checks to the IRS, its something I've done myself believe it or not (I worked as a political organizer as an independent contractor, not a wise decision in hindsight) I was just saying that making a rhetorical point that its somehow like giving a check directly to a poor person is ill served. I'm not exactly sure why that point seemed so relevant as right now it seems pretty petty, but I wanted to explain myself there.
Can McCain still win? Absolutely. I think though, looking at the state by state polling that Obama has built a pretty good firewall of all the states kerry won + IA, NM, NV and CO with VA as a possible contingency. I think McCain needs to pick off PA, which internal polling has put much closer than public polling has (yeah, anyone that thinks Obama will carry PA by more than five points is mistaken). I stand by my initial point though that if the networks can call Florida or Ohio for Obama then this thing is over.
Yes,if Obama wins FL an OH it is over. It's turn off the TV when VA reports.
FYI: Owners of small businesses pay taxes 4 times a year. "Quarterlies." April, June, September, January. In April they also settle-up for the previous year.
Post a Comment