The McCain Bounce #4: Barack Obama

Barack Obama

His campaign

Obama has done his best. Really, he's told the press to leave Palin alone. He's refrained from attacking her. He's also been courteous to McCain in regards to his military service. It's also not been nearly enough. The problem Obama has confronted is insoluble. He's committed by his left wing to endorse attacks that hurt his campaign. He might be able to rise above the "Palin dialogue" but so far he's been unable to stop it.

Obama's mistake

Just say that she's welcome to the campaign and that most everything she's got to say is irrelevant. Really, she's the VP. He's not running against Her. A theme of the Obama campaign has been to run against everybody but John McCain. From the McCain = Bush mantra, to the deranged attacks on Sarah Palin Obama has been off target. All of his effort misses the point of the campaign! John McCain is running for president against Barack Obama! DUH! The Bush attacks are stale and people can't vote against Bush this year. Obama has to give people a reason to vote for him, or against McCain. Bush is not on the ballot, so stop running against him! And Sarah Palin is not the presidential nominee either. So just ignore her the same way one would any other VP pick. If anything Obama should condemn the press to short circuit this Palin mania.

Sarah Palin is a political phenom. People hate or love her, it's emotional. That's why none of these attacks on her help Obama. Truth is irrelevant, experience is irrelevant, ideology is irrelevant. Those who like her will like her and those who don't like her won't like her based on a snap judgement formed during her convention speech. Shoot, Obama should know something about this! His entire presidential bid is based on a speech he gave in 2004 and people's emotional response. This same sort of mania is why Rev. Wright didn't hurt him. And nothing that is being thrown at Palin will hurt her... so he needs to do his best to get off the subject.

The polls say talking about Palin favors McCain. The CNN poll conducted last week showed that 40% of people were less likely to vote for the McCain ticket because of Palin, and 49% were more likely. The more that the campaign revolves around Palin the more that these sides will be polarized and frankly burning hatred in a minority does not win elections in a democracy. Really Really Really hating the opposition doesn't make votes count double.

A Lost Message

Sarah Palin's political character also freed McCain up to be something he hasn't been for 8 years: the maverick who trashes his own party as eagerly as he does the opposition. Do you remember watching bowling for Columbine and thinking to yourself that John McCain was a strange Republican? He's putting that hat on again. And people are responding. He's getting away with betraying his base because he's covered by Sarah Palin. Republicans have an emotional desire to vote for her. So it doesn't matter what McCain says. His association with her has made him untouchable from the right.

John McCain's new campaign mantra is CHANGE. How ridiculous is it on it's face that McCain, the Republican nominee, after a republican has spent 8 years in the white house, is promoting change. It's enough to curl your toe nails isn't it? But, it's working to some degree. It's not that Obama has lost the change message, it's just that McCain has bucked Bush and blunted Obama's appeal to the "throw the bums out" crowd.

Basically the Obama campaign is fighting on ground that it thought it had secured. The experience debate is over, McCain wins. Because Palin is covering McCain he can now talk about change without a revolt from the right. Obama has said that he's happy to have a debate about who's the better change agent, and... no doubt... he'd win it. But instead of getting %100 of the "change" (RE: throw the bums out) voters, now he's splitting them 80/20%.

Conclusions

Barack Obama has to regain his mojo. Maybe after 19 months the luster has worn thin and maybe he's at the mercy of a media that is determined to "help" him. Either way, his hopes for retrieving the mushy center that will decide this election rest on halting the McCain bounce.

Some free advice

-Stop talking about Sarah Palin and try to get everybody else to stop talking about her too... if you can.
-Remind people why they're emotionally committed to you as a person, not as a representative of the left.
-Attack John McCain! Forget about Bush, he's old news.
-Recapture "change." It can't be done wholly, but you needs to protect as much of it as you can.
-Use the bully pulpit. Find some reason, any reason, to call a speech during prime time and play to your strength. The folks like you, get as many of them as you can to see you!