Sorry there hasn't been anything here for two days, but don't worry. I haven't forgotten you. I was waiting for the over the weekend polling to come out to give me some numbers to confirm or deny some suspicions I expressed earlier about the effect of the convention. It's still too early to tell but I'm ready to make some guesses at the trends being reported in the polls today and why they look like they do.
After a solid 3 months of leads, usually within the margin of error, Obama is tied or behind in every weekend poll, still usually within the margin of error. That is to say, McCain is ahead or tied in every national poll that takes into account the effects of his speech and Palin. One poll even has McCain up by 10 points. This is significant not because it tells us that McCain is ahead or will win but more that the trend line is favorable to him. I'm going to start working on a beginner's guide to reading polling data that I'll permanently link to the front page. But, for now take my word on it, it's significant.
So, why has McCain moved ahead? What do you think? More to come on that from me later tomorrow.
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4 comments:
I have to tangent a bit from this post. In the event of McCain winning, are people not afraid Roe v. Wade will be overturned. I am. The next President is almost inevitably to choose a Supreme Court Justice, and McCain has said his choice will be Pro-Life. Why has this not gotten more press? Does anyone know where the American public polls on this issue? I feel this is still a taboo subject to many, but must be talked about. This is obviously of special concern to myself, as a woman.
I have never quite understood how ideologically Republicans want less government, but defend coming into one's home and outlawing abortion is somehow not included in this scope. Can any of you explain this? Does any of it go beyond the obvious religious context?
It's not being talked about because it does not effect the election. Abortion is one of the least important issues to people this year. It's far outweighed by the economy, the war, immigration, and energy. And, don't forget those who do identify abortion as their most important issue prefer McCain by 20 points. It's an urgency gap that you're seeing. Frankly, those who are pro-choice just don't care enough about the issue to vote against McCain because he's pro-life.
Touche! Now I feel like an idiot for even asking. Sometimes I worry about myself...who am I kidding, everyday I worry about myself.
It is a much different race than couple of years ago, considering most of the country thinks we are on the wrong track and I no longer live in Eugene, where I heard pro-choice rant on the daily. This is only the second Presidential election I have been able to be a part of, and I never realized how much happenstance affects my perspective. Hmm...I guess I can be influenced by the forces that be. That is a very scary realization.
Oh well, I'll just add this to my personal list of McCain's cons. Thanks Toby.
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