Most everybody is saying that Sarah exceeded expectations. I thought her speech was very good. She's got a presence and she rose to the occasion. I wish she had mentioned more specifics about exactly why Obama's economic plans were silly. That was the advantage of Romney (whom I admit I favored as McCain's mate). He made the simple economic truths indisputable.
She very clearly made the case on energy and national security. And, she's restarted the culture wars in a truly mind bending fashion. Crusty old men screaming "sexist!" and young women charging: "what a bad mother."
Palin is either a home run or a strike out. There's no room in between. She's just too fresh, too unsafe and too dynamic to be anything but a boom or bust. Maybe that's what McCain was counting on. Maybe Obama really was walkin' to Pennsylvania avenue without a care in the world and Palin was a way to shake it all up thus giving him a chance. Any way you slice it, it's really fascinating.
I'm usually more than ready and willing to make wild speculative estimates on the effects of this or that in politics. This time, I'm stumped. I still think that this country is center-right in general. But, folks are asking for help paying for health care, and folks really do want to throw the bums out of Washington. Democrats haven't been able to really capitalize on these two trends that seem to favor them. Who knows why. With congress' approval rate in the low 10's don't assume that the bums all have R's next to their names.
So here's my guess, end of the weekend, the race is back to a statistical tie and stays there until the debates. Not terribly exciting. Palin's speech has convinced me that she will help, on balance, but she's still just the VP.
What do you think?
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6 comments:
I remember being excited as an 11 year old kid by the Kennedy-Nixon race. My folks were excited, so I was, too. It was a little boy's excitement about something big and meaningful, untroubled by reality or analysis.
Now, despite decades of training, education, experience and observation, I find myself feeling excited again.
What an interesting political season!
I think its far too early to tell what impact she'll have, we may not know for quite awhile. My hunch is though, that last nights speech was as unifying for the Republicans as it was for the Democrats. Palin may prove to be just as polarizing a figure as Bush. And by the way, why do the Republicans feel the need to rag on community organizers? Its kinda like making fun of somebody for working for a food bank. Heres some interesting info about the perception of Palin by some focus group attendees:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/michigan-indepe.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/female-clinton-supporters_n_123794.html
You're very right Blake. I do think that she's going to be used in a more traditional VP role and that is going to be polarizing. She'll attack and be glib etc. Mostly I think she'll be there to provide an appeal to women based on identity and an appeal to conservatives based on ideology. She's also got good credentials on energy and corruption reform. That will help in a my gas is expensive/throw the bums out atmosphere.
McCain cannot count her her to appeal to the center. She's well right of me to be sure, and I'm somewhat to the right of average. I don't know that he wants to though, I think McCain will be his own appeal to independents. He's the one who's willing to confront the Washington establishment AND keep the country safe. It's a direct attempt to steal Obama's change thunder while still capitalizing on folk's real worries about Obama in the foreign policy field. Palin doesn't have to appeal to the middle, I think that's where McCain will swing in.
Check this out, I'm not the only democrat that was scared by her speech: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Palin_raising_for_Obama_.html?showall
Is Sarah Palin really good on corruption? What about that troopergate scandal? Depending on what comes out of the investigation it might just be like the Obama/Rezko affair, but it could be something bigger. What about how many earmarks she fought for as the mayor of Wasilla? Again, these may appear to be small issues, but they might make a difference if they pile up. While I agree that McCain needed something to rev up the conservative base I'm not sure that speech was the best introduction for her considering how partisan it was.
Wow, take a look:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080905/ap_on_el_pr/palin_poll
Well written article.
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